You have run a resort through a whole economy this season. This week you write the memo that tells the people who run the mountain what it taught you.
Learning objectives. After this week you can (1) structure a policy memo; (2) turn nominal season growth into real growth; and (3) cost one recommendation and test it against what would have happened anyway.
Remember this: a memo commits. One diagnosis, one recommendation, one price tag, and the strongest counterargument answered.
1) The structure
| Section | Contents |
|---|---|
| Header | TO / FROM / DATE / RE, where RE states the recommendation in one line |
| Executive summary | Diagnosis, recommendation, cost in 3 to 5 sentences. Written last, placed first. |
| The data | One exhibit of your key indicators and results, each traced to a report |
| Diagnosis | Which shocks hit (demand or supply), how big (in sigmas), how long |
| Recommendation | One specific, costed policy, with the school of thought behind it named |
| Risks | The strongest case against you, answered |
A memo argues a thesis. Telling the season in order is a diary.
2) Nominal vs. real, one last time
Real Growth = (1 + Nominal Growth) ÷ (1 + Price Rise) − 1
Weekly revenue rose from $52,000 to $58,240: +12% nominal. The Inflation index went from 1.05 to 1.092, so prices rose 1.092 ÷ 1.05 = 1.04, or 4%. Real growth: 1.12 ÷ 1.04 = 1.077, about +7.7%. A memo that reports 12% is inflating its own success.
3) Costing the recommendation
A recommendation without a price tag is an opinion. "Carry borrowing room into downturns" has a cost: if your average balance was $80,000 and your rate had run four points higher, that is 0.04 × 80,000 = $3,200 a year, about $8.77 a day. Put that next to what the money did for you. "Be more careful with money" fails as a recommendation: no trigger, no amount, no cost.
4) Compared with what?
Every "our policy worked" claim needs a comparison. You have two: mean reversion (how much of the recovery would have happened anyway, since indicators drift back toward normal) and the leaderboard (rival teams faced the identical economy, so they are your control group). Naming your school of thought shows the assumptions your policy depends on.
Quick self-check
(a) Season revenue +15% nominal while prices rose 5%. Real growth? (b) When is the executive summary written? (c) Why are rival teams a good control group? (Answers: 1.15 ÷ 1.05 ≈ 1.095, about +9.5%; last, then placed first; they faced the same economy.)
Common mistakes
- Narrating instead of arguing. The memo is a case, not a diary.
- Reporting nominal growth. Deflate every season-long comparison.
- Giving a direction, not a decision. Name the trigger, the amount and the cost.
This week in the arena
Build your season dashboard from your reports: the Inflation index, confidence and unemployment at the start and now, and your revenue early in the season and this week. Then pick one recommendation, price it, and commit.