Someone offers to buy your truck business tonight. What's your price, and could you defend it with your own numbers? This week you value what you built, learn from how you built it, and pitch what comes next.
Learning objectives. After this week you can (1) value your venture three ways; (2) run a retrospective that separates decisions from luck; and (3) pitch venture #2 in five beats.
Remember this: judge each decision by what you knew when you made it, not by how it turned out.
1) What is your venture worth?
Book Value (Net Worth) = Cash + Every Truck at Book
Liquidation Value = Cash + 60% of Book for Each Sellable Truck
Going-Concern Value = Average Daily Profit × a Horizon (days)
Cash $58,000, a founding truck at $5,000 book and a second truck at $7,600. Book value: 58,000 + 5,000 + 7,600 = $70,600, your leaderboard line. Liquidation: 58,000 + 0.60 × 7,600 = $62,560, because the founding truck can't be sold. Going concern: $520 a day × 90 days = $46,800 of earning power. A buyer who pays more than the assets are worth is paying for goodwill: your reputation, your regulars and your process. They pay it only if the earnings look durable rather than lucky.
2) The retrospective: skill vs. luck
A good call punished by a rainy day was still a good call; a reckless one rescued by a viral day was still reckless. Grading decisions by outcomes is called "resulting." Review in four passes:
- What worked, and the mechanism behind it.
- What failed, and whether the cause was reasoning or luck (your event lines tell you).
- What you'd do on day one, knowing what you know now.
- The one metric you would watch from the start.
3) Pitching venture #2
| Beat | What it must contain |
|---|---|
| Problem | A real customer need, with evidence |
| Solution & value proposition | Why customers choose you, in one sentence |
| Market | The target segment and how you'll reach it |
| Unit economics | Price, unit cost, contribution and break-even, at a believable scale |
| The ask | What you need, what it buys, and when it pays back |
The numbers won't transfer to your next venture; the methods will.
Quick self-check
(a) Cash $40,000 and one sellable truck at $6,000 book: liquidation value? (b) $300 a day over a 90-day horizon: going-concern value? (c) A reckless bet saved by a viral day: good decision? (Answers: $43,600; $27,000; no, the outcome doesn't fix the reasoning.)
Common mistakes
- Valuing at book out of pride. Buyers pay for future earnings, not purchase receipts.
- The highlight-reel review. A review that only celebrates teaches nothing.
- Pitching the old plan. Venture #2 should visibly carry this season's scars.
This week in the arena
Compute your three valuations from your latest Daily Report and the leaderboard. Run the four-pass review with your team, then build the five-beat pitch for venture #2. Report the valuations with the arithmetic.